3 bd · 3.5 ba ·
1,922 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Condo
· Pending
· 29 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,272/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$2,249
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,947
Net cashflow
$3,798/mo
Annual
$45,572/yr
Cap rate
30.93%
Cash-on-cash
87.98%
DSCR
4.91
1% rule
5.01%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Aspen Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #321 of 966 statewide, top 35%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Aspen Middle School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 443 students, 0% FRL); Aspen High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 529 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
At $9,272/mo this rent would consume 135% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-549PY9DY5G9JFW
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29