421-423 Forest Ave

Johnstown, PA 15902

$51,500B-

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$270
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $944/mo
• Annual: $11,324/yr
• Cap rate: 28.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.53%
• DSCR: 4.49
• 1% rule: 3.19%
• Cash to close: $14,420

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $52k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $944 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $472/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $52k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $356 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 94% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen appliances — Old and worn
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Missing and incomplete
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown lawn