8785 Annsbury Dr

Shelby, MI 48316

$494,460C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,090 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,593
• Tax + insurance: −$592
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,040
• Net cashflow: $726/mo
• Annual: $8,708/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $138,449

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $494k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $726 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $494k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($487k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $487k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $349k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.