2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,062 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Condo
· Active
· 88 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,401/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$727
HOA
−$762
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,134
Net cashflow
$1,467/mo
Annual
$17,607/yr
Cap rate
15.39%
Cash-on-cash
32.48%
DSCR
2.45
1% rule
2.16%
Cash to close
$69,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $250k).
It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $5,401/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-54PCQ100S905JZ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29