42424 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #7102

Anthem, AZ 85086

$324,900F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · Built 2004 · Condo · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$440
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-845/mo
• Annual: $-10,146/yr
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.15%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $90,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-845 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#98 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anthem School (math 59% / reading 62%, grade B-, #138 of 1,109 statewide, top 13%, 438 students, 17% FRL); Boulder Creek High School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #55 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,375 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $325k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?