2900 Fairview Rd #20

Hollister, CA 95023

$300,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,694/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$776
• Net cashflow: $845/mo
• Annual: $10,138/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.07%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $845 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#288 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• San Benito High (town): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #593 of 1,400 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollister High (3,465 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 281 units permitted in San Benito County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Benito County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.0% in Hollister — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.