3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,088 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 105 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,051/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$174
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$-48/mo
Annual
$-575/yr
Cap rate
6.09%
Cash-on-cash
-0.72%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-575/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (3.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (28.0% below list).
It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $168k; list at $285k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Bristol — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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