1722 W Avenue B

Muleshoe, TX 79347

$153,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$807
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-997/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $43,092

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-997/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#331 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Muleshoe ISD (town): math 33% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #580 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dillman El (403 students, 92% FRL); Watson J H (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 295 students, 90% FRL); Muleshoe H S (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 359 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 73% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Bailey County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bailey County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.