208 W Pine

Ashley, MI 48806

$165,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,133 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $67/mo
• Annual: $798/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.73%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($798/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.5% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#645 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashley Community Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #567 of 760 in MI (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ashley Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #276 of 1,397 statewide, top 22%, 79 students, 72% FRL); Ashley Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #388 of 493 statewide, top 80%, 86 students, 73% FRL); Ashley High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #596 of 713 statewide, top 86%, 73 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 47% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Gratiot County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gratiot County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.