Serena Plan

Yulee, FL 32097

$535,490D

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,423 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 186 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,682/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,808
• Tax + insurance: −$892
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$773
• Net cashflow: $-792/mo
• Annual: $-9,499/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $149,937

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-792 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($471k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $368k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,682/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.