1908 Crums Ln

Shively, KY 40216

$1,100,000C+

24 bd · 12.0 ba · 11,400 sqft · Built 1964 · MultiFamily · Active · 295 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax + insurance: −$1,571
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,619
• Net cashflow: $2,512/mo
• Annual: $30,141/yr
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.45%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $308,000

Investor read

• This is a 12 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive. Per door: $209/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $1.10M).
• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($968k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $968k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#78 in KY, #2,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $875k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.4% in Shively — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $12,470/mo this rent would consume 265% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1434% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?