5612 Falls Of Neuse Rd Unit H

Raleigh, NC 27609

$159,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Pending · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$246
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-692/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-692/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (3.2% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Millbrook Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 529 students, 80% FRL); East Millbrook Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #416 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 769 students, 73% FRL); Millbrook High (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 2,421 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 30% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $160k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?