Duranta Plan

Brownsville, TX 78520

$273,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,631/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $78,724

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (20.4% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Villa Nueva El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 361 students, 94% FRL); Stillman Middle (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,095 students, 68% FRL); Veterans Memorial Early College H S (math 33% / reading 69%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 2,172 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 438 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At $2,182/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.