506 5th St

Greenport, NY 11944

$995,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1868 · SingleFamily · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $14,620/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$818
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,070
• Net cashflow: $5,514/mo
• Annual: $66,171/yr
• Cap rate: 12.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.75%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($66k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $995k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($905k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $905k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#217 in NY, #3,399 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, commute B+; Watch: housing C-, cost of living F.
• Greenport Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #450 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1868 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1868 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.