1521 River Rd

Clyde, NY 14433

$120,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,508/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $457/mo
• Annual: $5,479/yr
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.31%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#497 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, commute D, amenities F.
• Clyde-Savannah Central School District (rural): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #587 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $120k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.