149 Tower Hill Rd

Doylestown, PA 18901

$584,900C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,624 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,875/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,067
• Tax + insurance: −$872
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,024
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,055/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $163,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $585k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $569k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $487k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($576k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $487k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#24 in PA, #146 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Central Bucks SD (suburban): math 55% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #37 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kutz El Sch (math 63% / reading 80%, grade A-, #142 of 1,518 statewide, top 9%, 487 students, 7% FRL); Lenape Ms (math 36% / reading 73%, grade B-, #76 of 512 statewide, top 16%, 839 students, 13% FRL); Central Bucks Hs-West (math 94% / reading 24%, grade C+, #81 of 437 statewide, top 18%, 1,504 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $585k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Doylestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,875/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 1032% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.