425 E 78th St Unit 5D

New York, NY 10075

$515,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1910 · Condo · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$858
• HOA: −$1,578
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,095
• Net cashflow: $-1,017/mo
• Annual: $-12,206/yr
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $515k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $500k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?