4365 Jo Dr

Saginaw, MI 48601

$147,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-184/mo
• Annual: $-2,207/yr
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $41,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (38.8% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $147k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.