5454 Bracken Ct

Goldenrod, FL 32792

$199,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,155/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$110
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $432/mo
• Annual: $5,181/yr
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.30%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#138 in FL, #2,056 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastbrook Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 671 students, 62% FRL); Lake Howell High School (math 36% / reading 49%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 2,205 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 38% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 275 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $199k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.6% in Goldenrod — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.