900 James Rd #17

Oildale, CA 93308

$64,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $835/mo
• Annual: $10,025/yr
• Cap rate: 21.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.17%
• DSCR: 3.45
• 1% rule: 2.38%
• Cash to close: $18,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $835 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Standard Elementary (suburban): math 16% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,227 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary (729 students, 84% FRL); Standard Middle (991 students, 88% FRL); North High (reading 75%, 2,214 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.