3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,000 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,230/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$747
Tax + insurance
−$174
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$258
Net cashflow
$50/mo
Annual
$605/yr
Cap rate
6.72%
Cash-on-cash
1.52%
DSCR
1.07
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$39,900
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($605/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (13.7% below list).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $123k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $985 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Gutermuth Elementary (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 373 students, 78% FRL); Frederick Law Olmsted Academy North (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #217 of 217 statewide, top 100%, 510 students, 74% FRL); Iroquois High (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #245 of 254 statewide, top 97%, 1,090 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $72k; list at $142k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-59A9YFF5G1DTCE
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29