5024 Tybalt Run

Forsyth, GA 31029

$445,000F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,917 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,953/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$584
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-1,408/mo
• Annual: $-16,894/yr
• Cap rate: 2.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.56%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (55.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (56.1% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (56.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#24 in GA, #3,557 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monroe County (rural): math 43% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #22 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Katherine B. Sutton Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #380 of 1,228 statewide, top 33%, 699 students, 58% FRL); Monroe County Middle School- Banks Stephens Campus (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 994 students, 47% FRL); Mary Persons High School (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #59 of 424 statewide, top 14%, 1,287 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 281 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 2.0% in Forsyth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.