14324 Hanging Moss Cir #101

University, FL 33613

$132,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$464
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-719/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $37,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $133k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-719/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (8.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $133k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in FL, #603 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pizzo K-8 School (math 25% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,057 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 902 students, 71% FRL); Benito Middle School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #140 of 571 statewide, top 25%, 1,017 students, 47% FRL); Wharton High School (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,289 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $133k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in University — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,669/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.