306 Palm Coast Pkwy NE #203

Palm Coast, FL 32137

$159,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,760/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$517
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-769/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-769/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (7.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lewis E. Wadsworth Elementary (math 54% / reading 57%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 743 students, 68% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 9925% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $160k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?