3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,280 sqft ·
Built 2006
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 74 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,356/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$285
Net cashflow
$489/mo
Annual
$5,872/yr
Cap rate
12.47%
Cash-on-cash
22.07%
DSCR
1.98
1% rule
1.43%
Cash to close
$26,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#210 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
St. Martin Parish (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #49 of 98 in LA (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 276 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in St. Martin Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Martin County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $70k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.4% in Breaux Bridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5AV0AS00NFG5N6
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29