6 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,500 sqft ·
Built 2018
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,738/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$292
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$365
Net cashflow
$164/mo
Annual
$1,964/yr
Cap rate
7.41%
Cash-on-cash
4.01%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.7% below list).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Harwell El (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 410 students, 88% FRL); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5AV4TJAYK65QGQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29