2205 Scenic Ave

Fairfield, CA 94533

$225,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · Built 1934 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,527/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $575/mo
• Annual: $6,900/yr
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Martinez Unified (suburban): math 42% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #120 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Las Juntas Elementary (341 students, 57% FRL); Martinez Junior High (767 students, 45% FRL); Alhambra Senior High (math 45% / reading 64%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 1,105 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 22% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 266 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.