8418 Kavanagh Rd

Dundalk, MD 21222

$175,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Built 1955 · Townhouse · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $225/mo
• Annual: $2,703/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 237 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.2% in Dundalk — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.