15757 El Estado Dr

Dallas, TX 75248

$595,000C

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,782 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax + insurance: −$992
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,219
• Net cashflow: $475/mo
• Annual: $5,705/yr
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $166,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $595k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $581k (2.4% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $541k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Richardson ISD (urban): math 40% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B, #355 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 650 students, 14% FRL); Parkhill J H (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 624 students, 43% FRL); Richardson H S (math 39% / reading 58%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 2,773 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 422 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,807/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.