12104 Carroll Creek Run

Huntertown, IN 46818

$312,500D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,639
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-122/mo
• Annual: $-1,464/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $87,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (25.7% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $232k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#159 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Eel River Elementary School (math 56% / reading 41%, grade D, #304 of 994 statewide, top 31%, 412 students, 29% FRL); Carroll Middle School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D+, #65 of 330 statewide, top 21%, 994 students, 29% FRL); Carroll High School (math 59% / reading 86%, grade B+, #10 of 369 statewide, top 3%, 2,554 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools average 26% FRL vs 11% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Huntertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.