3 Cedar Xing

Red Bank, NJ 07701

$239,823B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 2011 · Townhouse · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,724/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$230
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$782
• Net cashflow: $1,027/mo
• Annual: $12,322/yr
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.35%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $67,150

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $240k).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#45 in NJ, #1,151 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Red Bank Regional School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #143 of 472 in NJ (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Bank Primary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,124 of 1,303 statewide, top 88%, 591 students, 78% FRL); Red Bank Middle School (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #387 of 431 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 79% FRL); Red Bank Regional High School (math 34% / reading 49%, grade F, #177 of 399 statewide, top 45%, 1,195 students, 29% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Red Bank Regional School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.5% in Red Bank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.