114 Cottonwood Cir

Oroville, CA 95965

$49,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 257 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,824/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $1,125/mo
• Annual: $13,503/yr
• Cap rate: 33.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.43%
• DSCR: 5.33
• 1% rule: 3.69%
• Cash to close: $13,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,136 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oroville High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 936 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 4.6% in Oroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.