13850 Country Clb

Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$215,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 2022 · Other · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-69/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-69/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (25.0% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $215k implies a 236% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.9% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.