3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
960 sqft ·
Built 1992
· Manufactured
· Active
· 119 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,499/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$472
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$437/mo
Annual
$5,248/yr
Cap rate
13.79%
Cash-on-cash
26.79%
DSCR
2.19
1% rule
1.67%
Cash to close
$25,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#701 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute C-, employment D+, crime F.
Tulare Joint Union High (suburban): math 18% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #280 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Palo Verde Elementary (499 students, 54% FRL); Tulare Union High (math 22% / reading 63%, grade F, #466 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,699 students, 78% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.3% in Tulare — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5D23JV66K01AK3
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29