2024 S 15th St

Temple, TX 76504

$179,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $697/mo
• Annual: $8,365/yr
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.69%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 276 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 17890% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.6% in Temple — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,495/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1489% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.