115 W Graham St

Fredonia, KY 42411

$35,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $433/mo
• Annual: $5,199/yr
• Cap rate: 21.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.05%
• DSCR: 3.36
• 1% rule: 2.40%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($839 rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.5%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $859 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#240 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Caldwell County (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #78 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caldwell County Primary School (523 students, 64% FRL); Caldwell County Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 421 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP.
• Caldwell County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.