3431 S Pacific Spc 93

Medford, OR 97501

$47,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1975 · Land · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,671/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax + insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $1,034/mo
• Annual: $12,402/yr
• Cap rate: 32.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.24%
• DSCR: 5.19
• 1% rule: 3.55%
• Cash to close: $13,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $47k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $47k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $325 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 78% FRL); Talent Middle School (math 10% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 128 statewide, top 95%, 473 students, 79% FRL); Phoenix High School (math 24% / reading 70%, grade D-, #56 of 143 statewide, top 41%, 700 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 32.7% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.