2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,094 sqft ·
Built 1946
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,697/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$872
Tax + insurance
−$191
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$356
Net cashflow
$277/mo
Annual
$3,330/yr
Cap rate
8.30%
Cash-on-cash
7.15%
DSCR
1.32
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$46,561
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, employment F.
St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $13k; list at $99k implies a 669% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.5% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,697/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1995% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5EEN0NAMW7XX66
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29