1159 Peaceful Ln

Caseyville, IL 62232

$129,000B-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,540/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $445/mo
• Annual: $5,343/yr
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.79%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#241 in IL, #4,389 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Collinsville CUSD 10 (suburban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #465 of 620 in IL (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.3% in Caseyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.