4970 149th St N #3

Hugo, MN 55038

$215,000C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 401 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$426
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-314/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-314/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (2.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.