5 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,894 sqft ·
Built 1850
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 128 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,944/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$457
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$828
Net cashflow
$614/mo
Annual
$7,365/yr
Cap rate
8.18%
Cash-on-cash
6.75%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$109,172
Investor read
This is a 1×4bd/1.8ba + 1×3bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $307/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#60 in PA, #413 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D+.
West Shore SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #222 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Washington Heights El Sch (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,518 statewide, top 73%, 392 students, 63% FRL); New Cumberland Ms (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #346 of 512 statewide, top 69%, 549 students, 49% FRL); Cedar Cliff Hs (math 56% / reading 24%, grade F, #263 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 1,353 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $205k; list at $390k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,944/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 444% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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