36505 Bismark Rd

Carleton, MI 48164

$139,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $706/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($706/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (0.2% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#234 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Huron School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #154 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William D Miller Elem School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #581 of 1,397 statewide, top 42%, 480 students, 43% FRL); Carl T Renton Jr High School (math 34% / reading 47%, grade F, #202 of 493 statewide, top 42%, 591 students, 31% FRL); Huron High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 834 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 18 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $140k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.8% in Carleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.