438 19th St NE

Washington, DC 20002

$1,399,900D+

13 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,586 sqft · Built 1939 · MultiFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,341
• Tax + insurance: −$1,485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,474
• Net cashflow: $483/mo
• Annual: $5,793/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $391,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 6-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $241/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.18M (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.38M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.18M (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $42k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 548 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $470k; list at $1.40M implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $11,783/mo this rent would consume 118% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 3854% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.