3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,255 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 93 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,168/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$467
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$245
Net cashflow
$314/mo
Annual
$3,767/yr
Cap rate
10.53%
Cash-on-cash
15.12%
DSCR
1.67
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$24,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#93 in TX, #3,241 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D, employment D.
Texarkana ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #472 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Theron Jones Early Literacy Center (386 students, 98% FRL); Texas Middle (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,413 students, 75% FRL); Texas H S (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 1,719 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.1% in Texarkana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: Siding
— Weathered and needs repainting.
Minor: Landscaping
— Overgrown yard and fence need trimming and maintenance.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5F4JYCDS16XKNE
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29