6025 Outlook Ct

Maineville, OH 45152

$479,000C+

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,781 sqft · Built 2023 · Land · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,793/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax + insurance: −$719
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,217
• Net cashflow: $1,346/mo
• Annual: $16,153/yr
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.04%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $134,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $479k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $479k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $465k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.9% in Maineville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,793/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.