5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,297 sqft ·
Built 1967
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$11,676/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$8,176
Tax + insurance
−$2,638
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,452
Net cashflow
$-1,590/mo
Annual
$-19,074/yr
Cap rate
5.42%
Cash-on-cash
-3.10%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$436,520
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.56M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.28M (18.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.17M (25.1% below list).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.47M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.17M (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $167k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $156k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#384 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 155899900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $1.26M; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$268k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29