1713 Jace Dr

McKinney, TX 75071

$450,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,542 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$570
• HOA: −$56
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-616/mo
• Annual: $-7,389/yr
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#115 in TX, #3,716 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prosper ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #33 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 2161 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in McKinney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.