8438 Oakleigh Rd

Parkville, MD 21234

$199,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · Built 1946 · Townhouse · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $293/mo
• Annual: $3,517/yr
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.31%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#77 in MD, #2,839 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oakleigh Elementary (math 9% / reading 12%, grade F, #590 of 860 statewide, top 70%, 502 students, 67% FRL); Pine Grove Middle (math 11% / reading 42%, grade F, #86 of 225 statewide, top 40%, 916 students, 56% FRL); Loch Raven High (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #141 of 222 statewide, top 63%, 891 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 42% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $146k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.3% in Parkville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.