45 Gascoigne Ave

St. Simons, GA 31522

$292,900B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 562 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax + insurance: −$555
• HOA: −$622
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$961
• Net cashflow: $901/mo
• Annual: $10,811/yr
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.15%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $82,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $293k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $901 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $293k).
• It's been on market 562 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Glynn County (other): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #47 of 174 in GA (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 734 units permitted in Glynn County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Glynn County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $82k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 1.7% in St. Simons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,574/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 339% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 562 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Flooded area — Standing water indicates severe flooding
• Major: Structural assessment — Flooding can cause structural damage