620 S Caswell St

La Grange, NC 28551

$225,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $62/mo
• Annual: $742/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($742/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#278 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Grange Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 99% FRL); E B Frink Middle (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 540 students, 99% FRL); South Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 771 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in La Grange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.